Sodium battery energy storage demand in 2025

Global demand for sodium-ion batteries is expected to grow to just under 70 GWh in 2033, from 10 GWh in 2025, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27%, according to UK-based market research company IDTechEx. Sodium-ion batteries have at least 30% lower energy density than lithium-ion.

As global commercialization efforts for sodium-ion batteries intensify, IDTechEx forecasts that by 2025, around 10 GWh of sodium-ion batteries will be installed as significant manufacturing capacities come online and existing lithium-ion lines are converted to sodium-ion production.

Still, achieving a low-cost contender may be several years away for sodium-ion batteries and will require technological advances and favorable market conditions, according to a new study in Nature Energy. Sodium-ion batteries are often assumed to have lower costs and more resilient supply chains compared to lithium-ion batteries.

For the batteries to compete on price, specifically against a low-cost variant of the lithium-ion battery known as lithium-iron-phosphate, the study highlights several key routes for sodium-ion battery developers. Most important is to increase energy densities without the use of critical minerals.

Sodium-ion batteries are quoted to be between 20% and up to 40% cheaper, but the challenge is bringing the technology to scale. Therefore, significant saving over lithium-ion batteries is unlikely, at least initially. According to IDTechEx research, the average cell cost for Na-ion batteries is $87/kWh taking different chemistries into account.

For instance, battery industry heavyweight CATL rolled out its first-generation sodium-ion battery in 2021, with an energy density of 160 Wh/kg and promised an increase to 200 Wh/kg. Earlier this year, it confirmed that China's Chery will become the first automaker to use its sodium-ion battery tech.